2018’s Oscar guesses…

FINAL Oscar bets:

Picture: Green Book – nailed
Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma – nailed
Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife – failed, surprise win by Olivia Colman so The Favourite wouldn’t end emptyhanded
Actor: Remi Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody – nailed
Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, Vice (upsetting Regina King, which is supposed to be the frontrunner) – didn’t happen, Regina won
Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book – nailed
Adapted Screenplay: A Star is Born (upsetting BlacKkKlansman, the frontrunner) – thankfully, it did not happen
Original Screenplay: Green Book – nailed
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse – nailed
Score: If Beale Street could talk – wrong, I really understimated Black Panther
Song: Shallow, A Star is Born – nailed (easiest call of the night)
Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody – nailed
Cinematography: Roma – nailed
Production Design: The Favourite – wrong, Black Panther upset
Costume: The Favourite – wrong, ditto
Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody – nailed
Sound Editing: A Quiet Place – wrong, they REALLY liked Bohemian Rhapsody
Visual Effects: First Man (switching as I always thought Avengers: Infinity War was the frontrunner and should win) – nailed
Make Up: Vice – nailed
Foreign Language Film: Roma – nailed
Documentary Feature: Free Solo – nailed (some called it a surprise!)
Live Action Short: Skin (tempted of still say “Mother”, the spanish candidate) – nailed
Animated Short: Bao – nailed
Documentary Short: Period. End of Sentence (really CLOSE call between all 5 nominees, there are strong reasons for everyone to prevail) – nailed

 

17/24, nailing the 3 shorts and Animated, Foreign and Documentary features. Not that bad for one of the most open years I remember

 

 

The No Guts, No Glory picks for surprise upsets are: 1. Bohemian Rhapsody in Best Picture. 2. Spike Lee at Best Director (and the film earning 4 Oscars: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay and Film Editing) and 3. Yalitza Aparicio upsetting Close, Gaga and Colman at once and crowned Best Actress, in a Roma almost clean sweep

 

Before thinking twice, these were my picks…

 

 

Picture: Green Book (alt. Roma… but anyone can really win)

Director: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (alt. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman)

Actress: Glenn Close, The Wife (alt. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma)

Actor: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (alt. Christian Bale, Vice)

S. Actress: Amy Adams, Vice (alt. Regina King, If Beale Street could talk)

S. Actor: Mahershala Ali, Green Book (alt. Richard E. Grant, Can you ever forgive me?)

Adapted Screenplay: A Star is Born (alt. BlacKkKlansman)

Original Screenplay: Green Book (alt. The Favourite)

Score: If Beale Street could talk (alt. Black Panther)

Song: Shallow, A Star is Born (alt. I’ll fight, RBG)

Film Editing: Bohemian Rhapsody (alt. Vice)

Cinematography: Roma (alt. Cold War)

Production Design: The Favourite (alt. Black Panther)

Costume: The Favourite (alt. Black Panther)

Sound Mixing: Bohemian Rhapsody (alt. A Star is Born)

Sound Editing: A Quiet Place (alt. Bohemian Rhapsody)

Visual Effects: First Man (alt. Avengers: Infinity War)

Make Up: Vice (alt. Border)

Foreign Film: Roma (alt. Shoplifters)

Animated Feature: Spider-Man: into the Spiderverse (alt. Isle of Dogs)

Documentary: RBG (alt. Free Solo)

Live Action Short: Mother (alt. Fauve)

Documentary Short: Lifeboat (alt. End Game)

Animated Short: Animal Behavior (alt. Weekends)

 

*** on the shorts, just guessing as usual, haven’t followed those races. I don’t recall any given year, that so many races (Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, both Sound, Visual Effects…) were so wide open, in which hardly any winner would shock me.

2019’s overview…

“The Irishman”, Martin Scorsese. Robert de Niro, Al Pacino, Joe Pesci, Anna Paquin.

On paper, maybe the Oscar frontrunner for most categories. 4 Acting Oscar winners, a previous Director winner, and a candy story (Hoffa!). I’m so there.

Oscars perspectives: unless disaster, your multi-nominee, probable winner.

 

Once upon a time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino. Leonardo di Caprio, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Kurt Russell and many others.

The Charles Mason murders, retold in Tarantino style? It could go SO wrong. Unless he pulls an “Inglorious Bastards” twist, of course. Oscar will probably pass on this one, unless huge surprise.

Oscar perspectives: Margot Robbie in Supporting, probably. Maybe Screenplay.

 

Avengers: Endgame: Joe & Anthony Russo. Everyone in the MCU, including deceased characters.

The most awaited film of all time? I’m so there, too.

Oscar perspective: if they passed on Infinity War to promote Black Panther, they might probably pass on this one, too, unless Disney has no other contender. Still, probably Visual Effects only.

 

Captain Marvel, Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck. Brie Larson, Samuel L. Jackson, Jude Law, Clark Gregg.

It really looks fun. It’s MCU so unsure it might be a mistep. Looking forward to it.

Oscar perspective: hardly anything beyond VFX

 

Dolor y Gloria, Pedro Almodóvar. Antonio Banderas, Penélope Cruz, Julieta Serrano.

A filmmaker, successful in the 80s, tries to make a comeback. The trailer looks amazing and an Oscar-worthy role for Banderas (who probably is overdue for a nom… he should have won for The Skin I live in, and wasn’t even nominated!).

Oscar perspective: Foreign Film snub, if any good, it might be a strong contender for Score, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress (Cruz), Lead Actor (Banderas) and Director. It may sneak in, in Picture, if stars allign (odd, I think Almodovar is waaaay overdue for having a film nominated for the big one: Women on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown, All about my mother, Talk to Her and Volver probably were top 10 in their years, at the polls, so it is probable that now, with up to 10 films nominated, he can).

J’Accuse, Roman Polanski. Emmanuelle Seigner, Jean Dujardin

A december release in France, and in french… probably will arrive too late for Oscar consideration. But on paper, looks amazing.

Oscar perspectives: unless they do a qualifying run on time and also release it in Cannes/Toronto/Telluride first… think of 2020. But if smart, strong contender.

 

The Kidnapping of Edgardo Montara, Steven Spielberg. Mark Rylance.

Been in pre-production since 2017, IMDB says. A quick check to the story, it is pure Oscarbait. Jewish boy raised as catholic in the XIXth century Italy. Given how fast Spielberg can shoot, I’d say he will have it on time, specially if Dreamworks SKG does not have other card in the Oscar game…. talking about which…

 

West Side Story, Steven Spielberg. Rita Moreno

Talking about suicidal Oscar projects, a remake of one of the biggest winners, with one of the original stars in it? Can Rita Moreno win a 2nd Oscar for playing in the remake of the film that gave her the 1st?

Oscar perspectives: a master remaking a masterpiece. This can go either way. If finished on time, that’s it.

 

Us, Jordan Peele. Lupita Nyong’o, Bill Duke

From the trailer, it seems a twist on Invasion of Body Snatchers. Looks amazing.

Oscar perspective: unpredictable. Will lightning strike twice?

 

Mientras dure la guerra, Alejandro Amenábar. Eduard Fernández, Karra Elejalde.

A spanish civil war film by Oscar winner Amenábar. Expect this one to do well…

Oscar perspectives: Foreign Film likely submission, probably contender.

 

Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi. Taika Waititi, Scarlett Johanson, Sam Rockwell, Stephen Merchant.

Waititi has still to fail. He has also still to make a huge awards breakthrough (which he deserves). This could be potentially awesome.

Oscar perspectives: more like “Life is beautiful”, less like “The Clown that cried”. Original screenplay frontrunner?