Picture: The Power of the Dog (alt. CODA, Belfast). While CODA seems to have the momentum (PGA, SAG Ensemble, Casting Society, WGA – where TPotD was not ellegible, beware), the Little Miss Sunshine feeling is too huge, and also I am unsure if they are going to really buy the story of “the little film that could”, given it’s Apple, behind it. That “streaming bias” factor, makes me think that Belfast may surprise along with an Original Screenplay win.
Director: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog… pretty locked up.
Actress: EDITED (March 25th, I switch to Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers) Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye. Look, she doesn’t deserve it, for this performance, too histrionic, too out of touch with the rest of the cast (except Garfield), and it is a too one-dimensional performance to be deserving of a victory… Still, there’s room for any of the other four contenders to win, specially Penélope Cruz, which is the last minute champion in campaigning with plenty of names urging to see Parallel Mothers before casting the ballots. I think that if anyone beats Chastain, it will be her… but I wouldn’t be in shock by Colman, Stewart or Kidman winning. It’s the most exciting category of the night.
Actor: Will Smith, King Richard. Locked up, as well.
Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story. Ditto
Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, CODA (minor chance for Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog, to upset, though)
Adapted Screenplay: The Power of the Dog (alt. CODA)
Original Screenplay: Belfast (alt. Licorice Pizza, Don’t Look Up)
Score: Dune (alt. Parallel Mothers)
Song: No Time to Die, No Time to Die (alt. Dos Oruguitas, Encanto)
Cinematography: Dune (alt. The Power of the Dog)
Production Design: Dune (alt. Nightmare Alley)
Costume: Cruella (alt. Dune)
Film Editing: Dune (alt. Don’t Look Up, King Richard)
Make Up: The Eyes of Tammy Faye (alt. Dune)
Documentary: Summer of Soul
International: Drive my Car
Animated: Encanto (alt. Flee)
Animated Short: Bestia (alt. Robin, Robin)
Live Action Short: The Long Goodbye
Documentary Short: Audible (alt. The Queen of Basketball)